基于灰色理论的油液监测数据建模与预测研究

Research on oil monitoring data modelling and prediction based on grey theory

  • 摘要: 实现装备动力装置油液磨粒监测数据的准确建模与预测,对于准确评估动力装置健康状态,保障装备动力装置正常运行具有重要作用。针对工程实际中经常遇到的非等间距采样的油液监测参数的建模与预测,研究了一种改进二步法的非等间距GM(1,1)建模方法,该方法不仅适用于高增长序列,而且具有较高的模型精度。基于该方法建立了油液磨损颗粒数的灰色预测模型,并与数据变换法非等间距建模精度进行了对比,结果表明前者具有更高精度,更适用于油液磨损颗粒数趋势的短期预测。

     

    Abstract: Accurate modeling and prediction of oil debris monitoring data for equipment power systems plays an important role in evaluation of the health status of power systems and ensuring their normal operation. An improved two-step GM (1,1) modeling method for non equidistant sampling of oil monitoring parameters, which is often encountered in engineering practice, is studied. This method is not only suitable for high growth sequence, but also has high model accuracy. Based on this method, the grey prediction model of oil wear particle number is established and the prediction accuracy is compared with that of the non-equidistance modeling accuracy of data transformation method. The results show that the former has higher accuracy and is more suitable for the short-term prediction of oil wear particle number trend.

     

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