基于贝叶斯网络的数控机床元动作可靠性分配研究

Study on reliability allocation of meta-actions of CNC machine tools based on Bayesian network

  • 摘要: 针对传统可靠性模糊分配方法因忽略单元后验失效概率而导致分配结果偏差的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的数控机床元动作可靠性分配方法。首先,采用功能-运动-动作分解实现功能层至元动作层映射,体现机床运动系统的结构特征;其次,构建面向性能失效分析的元动作故障树,结合专家评分与有序加权几何平均算子获取更准确的先验信息;最后,将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络,通过逆向推理获得元动作后验失效概率,并作为分配系数,实现先验与后验信息的有效更新。实例分析表明,与仅依赖先验信息的传统方法相比,文章所提方法能更准确识别机床的关键薄弱环节,分配结果与实际失效趋势高度一致,从而显著提升可靠性分配的合理性与有效性。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the issue that traditional fuzzy reliability allocation methods may lead to deviations in allocation results due to neglecting units’ posterior failure probabilities, a Bayesian network-based reliability allocation method for meta-actions of CNC machine tools is proposed. Firstly, function–motion–action decomposition is adopted to achieve mapping from the functional layer to the meta-action layer, reflecting the structural characteristics of the machine tool’s motion system. Secondly, a fault tree for meta-actions is constructed for performance failure analysis, and more accurate prior information is obtained by combining expert scoring with the ordered weighted geometric averaging operator. Finally, the fault tree is transformed into a Bayesian network, through reverse reasoning, the posterior failure probability of the meta-actions is obtained and used as the allocation coefficient to achieve the effective update of prior and posterior information. Case study results demonstrate that, compared with traditional methods relying solely on prior information, the proposed approach can more accurately identify key weak links of the machine tool, and the allocation results are highly consistent with actual failure trends, thereby significantly improving the rationality and effectiveness of reliability allocation.

     

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