面向复杂不确定产业链的可信智能调度决策优化

Trusted intelligent scheduling decision optimization for complex and uncertain industrial chains

  • 摘要: 针对产业链各个环节的调度在复杂不确定环境中面临的决策可信度低、跨主体协同难问题,提出跨链协同与因果推断融合的智能调度框架,构建了一体化产业链调度决策优化模型。首先,通过运筹优化、人工智能等技术,综合考虑各环节能力约束、计划性约束等相关限制条件。其次,基于改进麻雀算法挖掘事件间因果权重,进而建立线性或非线性优化模型。最后,设计并构建面向复杂不确定的产业链决策优化模型,实现具体异常场景下的决策方案优化,为快速、高效解决供应链问题提供辅助决策方案。以煤炭装车不足和铁路区段运力下降问题为对象完成了决策模型优化,实现了工作计划和供给计划的保持、安全库存和履约情况以及效益的保证,显著提升了复杂不确定产业链调度决策的效率和准确性。该框架尤其适用于制造企业中常见的订单波动、物料短缺、产能瓶颈和物流中断等典型场景,可为生产计划排程、库存策略优化以及跨厂协同配送等关键环节提供动态、可信的决策支持,助力制造业实现供应链全链条的可视、可控与自适应优化。

     

    Abstract: In response to the problems of low decision-making credibility and difficulty in cross-subject collaboration faced by the scheduling of each link in the industrial chain in a complex and uncertain environment, this paper proposes an intelligent scheduling framework that integrates cross-chain collaboration and causal inference, and constructs an integrated industrial chain scheduling decision optimization model. Firstly, through operations research and optimization of artificial intelligence and other technologies, the capacity constraints of each link are comprehensively considered. Secondly, based on the improved sparrow algorithm, causal weights between events are mined, and then linear or nonlinear optimization models are established. Finally, a decision-making optimization model for complex and uncertain industrial chains is designed and constructed to optimize decision-making schemes in specific abnormal scenarios, providing auxiliary decision-making solutions for quickly and efficiently solving supply chain problems. The problems of insufficient coal loading and the decline in railway section transportation capacity are taked as the objects to complete the optimization of the decision-making model, achieving the maintenance of safety stock and fulfillment status of work plans and supply plans as well as the guarantee of benefits, significantly improving the efficiency and accuracy of dispatching decisions in complex and uncertain industrial chains.

     

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